On Jan. 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance announced that the value-added tax rebate for photovoltaic products ,among others, will be canceled effective April 1, 2026. Methanol products are also included in the attached list. 

The primary purpose of export tax rebates is to allow exported goods to enter the international market at tax-exclusive prices, thereby enhancing their competitiveness and promoting foreign export trade. As an internationally established practice, export tax rebates reduce the overall tax burden on exported goods to zero, serving as a widely adopted measure by countries around the world to boost exports.

However, when export tax rebates for a particular industry develop to a certain stage, while they may seem like a direct subsidy to domestic exporters, the ultimate beneficiaries are often foreign consumers who gain from lower prices—effectively subsidizing overseas markets.

At its core, this tax rebate cancellation serves as an industrial regulation targeting traditional products and their energy-intensive downstream products，such as polysilicon for photovoltaics. The attached list includes methanol, without distinguishing between "gray" and "green" methanol—meaning green methanol is also encompassed. This entails the direct revocation of the 13% value-added tax (VAT) rebate for all products declared for export under methanol.

Currently, the production cost of domestic green methanol is significantly higher than that of traditional methanol, and the market remains heavily reliant on international demand.

Placing green methanol in the same category as traditional methanol for the cancellation of export tax rebates will directly lead to increased export costs and reduced price competitiveness in the international market.  For projects originally planned for export, particularly those targeting the international shipping fuel market—business model must be reconsidered. The requirements for green methanol producers are further raised, presenting considerable challenges.

Enerscen suggests that,in response to the current situation, green methanol enterprises should focus on three main areas to prepare for future development:

First, from a global perspective, domestic green methanol retains a certain level of competitiveness due to advantages in technology, scale, and resources, even without the tax rebate. Some international projects can still be pursued, but  partnerships must balance corporate profitability with long-term development.

Second, there should be active efforts to explore the domestic market. This includes choosing to cooperate with domestic ports to keep the commodity within the country; as well as actively developing markets along inland rivers,waterway, and lakes markets, and lakes to explore various domestic application scenarios.

Third, confidence should be maintained in policy support. Green methanol,hydrogen-based energy and related sectors have become key priorities for national support.The industry is currently transitioning from relying on export subsidies to building competitive domestic circulation. As standards are gradually established, costs decline, and scale increases, the domestic green methanol market will become clearer.

Source: Enerscen